SABA is concerned by the emergence and growth of unregulated prediction market platforms that allow South African consumers to wager on political, economic, social and sporting outcomes outside the existing gambling regulatory framework. Recent reports indicate that more than R700,000 was wagered on the selection of Johannesburg’s next mayor through the offshore prediction market platform Polymarket, despite the absence of any South African regulatory oversight, licensing, taxation, responsible gambling controls or integrity safeguards. (News24) While prediction markets are frequently presented as innovative forecasting tools, their underlying mechanics are materially similar to peer-to-peer (“P2P”) betting exchanges. Both models enable individuals to bet directly against one another, with the platform merely facilitating matching and collecting commissions or transaction fees rather than assuming betting risk itself.
SABA aligns with the conclusions of the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities (IFHA) and other international sporting integrity bodies that products enabling participants to profit from losing outcomes create elevated risks to sporting integrity, market manipulation, insider trading, corruption, money laundering and consumer harm. These concerns become particularly acute when prediction markets extend beyond sports into political elections, legislative decisions, public appointments, regulatory outcomes and financial events.
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SEAN COLEMAN
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
Founded in 1951, the South African Bookmakers’ Association is the leading voluntary association for bookmakers and
represents the interests of its members in the gambling industry.
